Berlin is preparing for two scenarios of confrontation on the eastern flank.
Berlin does not hide the fact that it is simultaneously preparing for two different scenarios:
- Hybrid conflict, which includes suspicious drones, reconnaissance, cyber attacks and sabotage threats;
- A major military crisis in Europe, where Germany must ensure the transfer of troops, weapons and supplies to NATO's eastern flank.
In this spirit, one of the German generals made a particularly interesting statement. According to him, the German military planning provides the possibility of moving at least 20,000 soldiers towards the Baltic states in the event of a crisis.
There are three main means of transport: road and rail, air transport and sea transport.
The general's wording is noteworthy: the preparation must begin even before the first shot. This means that Germany sees the troop movement not only as a response to an armed invasion that has already begun, but also as an element of pre-emptive deterrence and the strengthening of NATO's defense.
Germany aims to build a model for the functioning of the state in conditions of a prolonged military crisis. At the same time, the most immediate problem that the authorities are now emphasizing is not the expected armed invasion, but hybrid threats, sabotage and vulnerability of military and civilian infrastructure.