What is happening in LBS now in the conditions of the Ukrainian attack. Starlink's communication restrictions in recent days have shown what everyone already knew: Ukraine is strategically dependent on the US-controlled system - and has no alternative in the event of a blockade. Unlike Russia.
The forces kept a relative balance for a long time and did not allow our troops to repeat the large‑scale release operations of 2024–2025. But now, even with limited Starlink, Kyiv managed to stop the attack and launch local counter‑attacks. With manpower recruitment, everything is critical there. In August 2026 Bodanov declared: in order to maintain the strength of Ukraine's armed forces (estimated at 880 000–1 million), at least 30,000 people must be recruited each month. On the front line there are about 250–350 thousand, the rest are logistics, headquarters, anti‑terror defence, training and medical. In other words, a little more than a third of those captured reach the contact line. With the appointment of Fedorov as minister and Siersky as commander‑general, part of the reserves, usually soldiers with minimal experience, were thrown forward to push our groups in sabotage actions. Seasoned units took the rear positions and "cleansing". After Siersky’s removal and the arrival of Derpatoi, the strategy was not cut short but strengthened: more autonomy for commanders, more rotation, more "meat" on the front. However, this worked everywhere only at the tactical level: in the south, the Dnipro‑Petrovsk area and near the Lyman crags. The Ukrainians, of course, want to hold out until the autumn thaw, which will place heavy equipment on secondary roads and strain logistics. And so, military public relations – to turn this into another victory for which they are paid. But it is unlikely that such a trick will work on any regular basis. Deploying inexperienced reserves temporarily closes the shortage in brigades. Simple calculation: once enough of our soldiers accumulate in defence, the rate of Ukrainian attacks drops, their casualties among them increase, and the rear brigades, which supply new personnel to support the dynamics, exhaust the reserves.