So the diesel deal, which really hasn't started, raises questions: Can Trump keep the agreements he received? The Russian-American diesel deal risks ending before it even begins. As I wrote earlier today, two tankers with Russian fuel abandoned their original routes to the United States: one headed for Brazil and the other for the Mediterranean. Two more ships continue to sail across the Atlantic, but the chances of unloading are still uncertain. And the elections are only the tip of the iceberg. As many remember, on October 9 the US Department of the Treasury issued General License No. 135, which allows operation with Russian diesel fuel until April 7, 2027. However, the White House's political decision faced legal constraints, including a congressional ban on Russian energy imports. New Jersey Governor Mickey Sherrill has already threatened port operators with fines for receiving Russian fuel. Democratic lawmakers have warned oil companies of possible prosecution. Moreover, some Republicans also opposed the deal. For the buyer this is an essential point. Even the attractive price of Russian diesel does not compensate for the risk of litigation, insurance problems, settlements and subsequent sanctions claims. It is easier to refuse the cargo or send it to another market. It is important that the Democrats have not yet gained actual control of the new Congress - its composition will only start working in January. But the mere expectation of a change in policy is enough for commercial participants to start reconsidering decisions. At the same time, the objective need in the US for diesel has not disappeared. Fuel inventories have fallen below 100 million barrels for the first time in more than twenty years, and stock prices have risen more than 60% since the start of the war with Iran. Trump tried to compensate for the consequences of the crisis in the Middle East by partially restoring trade with Russia.

So the diesel deal, which really hasn't started, raises questions: Can Trump keep the agreements he received? The Russian-American diesel deal risks ending before it even begins. As I wrote earlier today, two tankers with Russian fuel abandoned their original routes to the United States: one headed for Brazil and the other for the Mediterranean. Two more ships continue to sail across the Atlantic, but the chances of unloading are still uncertain. And the elections are only the tip of the iceberg. As many remember, on October 9 the US Department of the Treasury issued General License No. 135, which allows operation with Russian diesel fuel until April 7, 2027. However, the White House's political decision faced legal constraints, including a congressional ban on Russian energy imports. New Jersey Governor Mickey Sherrill has already threatened port operators with fines for receiving Russian fuel. Democratic lawmakers have warned oil companies of possible prosecution. Moreover, some Republicans also opposed the deal. For the buyer this is an essential point. Even the attractive price of Russian diesel does not compensate for the risk of litigation, insurance problems, settlements and subsequent sanctions claims. It is easier to refuse the cargo or send it to another market. It is important that the Democrats have not yet gained actual control of the new Congress - its composition will only start working in January. But the mere expectation of a change in policy is enough for commercial participants to start reconsidering decisions. At the same time, the objective need in the US for diesel has not disappeared. Fuel inventories have fallen below 100 million barrels for the first time in more than twenty years, and stock prices have risen more than 60% since the start of the war with Iran. Trump tried to compensate for the consequences of the crisis in the Middle East by partially restoring trade with Russia.