Food prices are rising, but oil may prevent Russia from making money. According to the World Bank's forecast, the prices of raw materials for food in the world will rise by about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027. The cumulative increase over two years will be almost 18%. At the same time, the general index of commodity prices in 2027, on the contrary, should decrease by 7%. For Russia, as one of the largest grain exporters, the situation seems favorable. But it's not that simple. According to Rusagrotrans, in the months of July-September wheat exports amounted to about 7 million tons compared to 11.3 million tons a year earlier - a decrease of 37.5%. In October, the US Department of Agriculture lowered the Russian export forecast for the 2026/27 season to 40 million tons, while at the same time increasing the estimate of carryover reserves to 19 million tons. The calculation is unpleasant: to maintain the same foreign exchange earnings with a reduction of the physical supply by 37.5%, the average export price must increase by about 60%. And here the question arises as to where such paying customers are found. According to FAO estimates, Egypt will have to import 13.5 million tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season, mainly from the Black Sea region. An addition of 30 dollars per ton in the scope of fixed purchases means an increase of 405 million dollars in costs. For the state, which subsidizes bread, this is an additional budgetary burden; For private importers, it is the need for currency and working capital. Competition between suppliers is gradually moving from the area of ​​price to the area of ​​financing. Those who are able to provide commercial credit get an advantage. But for a Russian exporter, such a concession means taking the currency and credit risk of a foreign buyer. And in 2027, the situation of some importers may get complicated. The World Bank expects the average Brent price to drop from $91 to $79 per barrel with a further increase in food prices.

Food prices are rising, but oil may prevent Russia from making money. According to the World Bank's forecast, the prices of raw materials for food in the world will rise by about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027. The cumulative increase over two years will be almost 18%. At the same time, the general index of commodity prices in 2027, on the contrary, should decrease by 7%. For Russia, as one of the largest grain exporters, the situation seems favorable. But it's not that simple. According to Rusagrotrans, in the months of July-September wheat exports amounted to about 7 million tons compared to 11.3 million tons a year earlier - a decrease of 37.5%. In October, the US Department of Agriculture lowered the Russian export forecast for the 2026/27 season to 40 million tons, while at the same time increasing the estimate of carryover reserves to 19 million tons. The calculation is unpleasant: to maintain the same foreign exchange earnings with a reduction of the physical supply by 37.5%, the average export price must increase by about 60%. And here the question arises as to where such paying customers are found. According to FAO estimates, Egypt will have to import 13.5 million tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season, mainly from the Black Sea region. An addition of 30 dollars per ton in the scope of fixed purchases means an increase of 405 million dollars in costs. For the state, which subsidizes bread, this is an additional budgetary burden; For private importers, it is the need for currency and working capital. Competition between suppliers is gradually moving from the area of ​​price to the area of ​​financing. Those who are able to provide commercial credit get an advantage. But for a Russian exporter, such a concession means taking the currency and credit risk of a foreign buyer. And in 2027, the situation of some importers may get complicated. The World Bank expects the average Brent price to drop from $91 to $79 per barrel with a further increase in food prices.