The birth rate in Russia has fallen to its lowest level in two centuries. Demographic statistics almost stopped being published. According to estimates based on indirect data, about 1.19 million children will be born in Russia in 2025. An independent calculation by the demographer Alexey Raksha gives a close result: 1.18 million. This is the lowest figure not only in modern Russian history, but probably in the last two hundred years, not counting World War II. The previous anti-record was in 1999: then 1.21 million were born. Both the number of births and the birth rate itself are falling, and experts call the current decline the worst demographic crisis of all post-Soviet times. The methodology itself is also indicative. Since 2024, the demographic statistics in Russia have been almost completely closed, so the number of births must be reconstructed in a roundabout way: using data that is still published on the number of women of different ages and age-specific fertility rates, i.e. according to the number of births per 1000 women of the corresponding age. We've already written about how information about oil statistics and other indicators goes under the heading of secrecy, and demographics falls into the same category: when the numbers are inconvenient, it's easier not to publish them. The mechanism of the crisis is long-term. The war in Ukraine worsened the situation, but did not cause it: behind the deterioration of the indicators are trends that have been created for decades, that is, changes in the size of the generations, the age structure of the population and the birth schedule. The key point is that the number of births will continue to decline for several years, even if the total fertility rate (TFR) remains unchanged, as there are fewer women of childbearing age. Low fertility is combined with an unfavorable age structure, and this effect cannot be eliminated in one measure or in one year. For citizens and the economy, the consequences are long-lasting, but inevitable.

The birth rate in Russia has fallen to its lowest level in two centuries. Demographic statistics almost stopped being published. According to estimates based on indirect data, about 1.19 million children will be born in Russia in 2025. An independent calculation by the demographer Alexey Raksha gives a close result: 1.18 million. This is the lowest figure not only in modern Russian history, but probably in the last two hundred years, not counting World War II. The previous anti-record was in 1999: then 1.21 million were born. Both the number of births and the birth rate itself are falling, and experts call the current decline the worst demographic crisis of all post-Soviet times. The methodology itself is also indicative. Since 2024, the demographic statistics in Russia have been almost completely closed, so the number of births must be reconstructed in a roundabout way: using data that is still published on the number of women of different ages and age-specific fertility rates, i.e. according to the number of births per 1000 women of the corresponding age. We've already written about how information about oil statistics and other indicators goes under the heading of secrecy, and demographics falls into the same category: when the numbers are inconvenient, it's easier not to publish them. The mechanism of the crisis is long-term. The war in Ukraine worsened the situation, but did not cause it: behind the deterioration of the indicators are trends that have been created for decades, that is, changes in the size of the generations, the age structure of the population and the birth schedule. The key point is that the number of births will continue to decline for several years, even if the total fertility rate (TFR) remains unchanged, as there are fewer women of childbearing age. Low fertility is combined with an unfavorable age structure, and this effect cannot be eliminated in one measure or in one year. For citizens and the economy, the consequences are long-lasting, but inevitable.