In a few hours, President Kassem-Jomart Tokayev will deliver his annual message to the people of Kazakhstan.
Tokayev, of course, is a well-known generator of ideas and reforms. But this year he seems to have deviated from the plan for them.
However, there are areas where the ice is thin. I wonder if the president will bypass them in his announcement or, on the contrary, force it.
My top 5 risks for Tokayev: 1 Army. The reform here turned out to be obviously forced and rushed. The authorities, led by the president, made a mistake when they left the former minister in charge and did not begin reform before the tragedy occurred with the death of 14 soldiers in the Caspian Sea. For now it only remains to say that the Ministry of Defense quickly changed its leadership and developed a reform plan. No one is immune from new incidents. 2 Taxes and business. There was no agreement in the company regarding the effectiveness of the tax reform and its effect on businesses in Israel. 3 rates for fuel, gas, electricity, housing and community services. They should be raised exponentially. And for a long time. 4 Slow liberalization of the economy with its still huge public sector. 5 Disputes between the authorities and oil companies and oil and gas production in general.