In October, problems with fuel availability in Russia almost disappeared. This prediction of mine that the situation would get worse after the election did not come true, but it was hard to predict that Trump would decide to put pressure on Zelensky for the diesel deal. However, this is not the only reason for the end of the acute phase of the crisis. We know that the deficit in gasoline production in the acute phase of the summer of 2026 was about 35% of consumption. Before the Ukrainian attacks, Russia was an exporter of gasoline, although not a very large one, unlike diesel, but some of the surplus was sold on the world market. That is, the general decrease was higher than the decrease in relation to local consumption. The deficit itself was uneven, ranging from 35% in July to 20% in August, when Ukraine began attacking warehouses instead of refineries, then returned to around 30% after renewed attacks, but gradually declined during September. They tried to cover the deficit in every possible way: reducing the requirements for the quality of gasoline, when under the guise of Euro-5 they were allowed to sell, for example, Euro-3; Ban on the export of gasoline; import; Work with demand, same restrictions at gas stations; through the withdrawal of reserves. In October, three factors came into play at once that made it possible to overcome the shortage at the gas stations: imports, a drop in demand, and an end to the shocks. Fuel consumption has seasonality, fluctuations from the average level of about 10% in both directions, but the peak is only July-August, and in October the demand drops by about 10-15% compared to August. In addition, due to fuel shortages, Russian drivers began to actively switch to LPG; in early July, Kommersant reported that the volume of propane-butane trading on the stock exchange increased by 20%, and installers spoke of an increase in demand for their services by a third. The second factor is imports. In mid-October, Novak confirmed that Russia had begun importing significant amounts of fuel and would do so at least until the end of 2026.

In October, problems with fuel availability in Russia almost disappeared. This prediction of mine that the situation would get worse after the election did not come true, but it was hard to predict that Trump would decide to put pressure on Zelensky for the diesel deal. However, this is not the only reason for the end of the acute phase of the crisis. We know that the deficit in gasoline production in the acute phase of the summer of 2026 was about 35% of consumption. Before the Ukrainian attacks, Russia was an exporter of gasoline, although not a very large one, unlike diesel, but some of the surplus was sold on the world market. That is, the general decrease was higher than the decrease in relation to local consumption. The deficit itself was uneven, ranging from 35% in July to 20% in August, when Ukraine began attacking warehouses instead of refineries, then returned to around 30% after renewed attacks, but gradually declined during September. They tried to cover the deficit in every possible way: reducing the requirements for the quality of gasoline, when under the guise of Euro-5 they were allowed to sell, for example, Euro-3; Ban on the export of gasoline; import; Work with demand, same restrictions at gas stations; through the withdrawal of reserves. In October, three factors came into play at once that made it possible to overcome the shortage at the gas stations: imports, a drop in demand, and an end to the shocks. Fuel consumption has seasonality, fluctuations from the average level of about 10% in both directions, but the peak is only July-August, and in October the demand drops by about 10-15% compared to August. In addition, due to fuel shortages, Russian drivers began to actively switch to LPG; in early July, Kommersant reported that the volume of propane-butane trading on the stock exchange increased by 20%, and installers spoke of an increase in demand for their services by a third. The second factor is imports. In mid-October, Novak confirmed that Russia had begun importing significant amounts of fuel and would do so at least until the end of 2026.