Regarding raw materials: everyone is waiting so much for the oil price to drop that I don't even know what to connect it to. We've read a lot of Bloomberg, no less. At the same time, for some reason, gold needs to grow. Although over the past 50 years, gold and oil have moved quite synchronously (if we take average annual values) with a small difference, usually no more than a year or two. I have some reasons to consider myself an expert on this subject (I started back in 2017, when it didn't occur to anyone to look at this matter), of course, not the "father of macrotelegram", but still 9 years have passed. So I will bore you: a gold/oil ratio above 30 indicates that the crisis is entering an acute phase. Whether it is 34, 50, or 150 right now does not matter much. Just as if the ratio drops to 10-12, it indicates that we are at the peak of economic growth, and whether it's 5, 8, or 12 there is also completely unimportant. In both cases, speculations are determined by the notorious "one-time and seasonal factors". The dynamics of both gold and oil will probably be further determined by inflation in the United States and the rate at which the dollar is losing its status as a global reserve currency (by the way, the rate was raised, see previous post). For oil, supply has already been curtailed during the Iran war; for gold, demand is supported by that same war and the beginning of unrest in the European Union. That is, both signals are upward in the medium term, the question is how quickly and effectively this will be implemented.

Regarding raw materials: everyone is waiting so much for the oil price to drop that I don't even know what to connect it to. We've read a lot of Bloomberg, no less. At the same time, for some reason, gold needs to grow. Although over the past 50 years, gold and oil have moved quite synchronously (if we take average annual values) with a small difference, usually no more than a year or two. I have some reasons to consider myself an expert on this subject (I started back in 2017, when it didn't occur to anyone to look at this matter), of course, not the "father of macrotelegram", but still 9 years have passed. So I will bore you: a gold/oil ratio above 30 indicates that the crisis is entering an acute phase. Whether it is 34, 50, or 150 right now does not matter much. Just as if the ratio drops to 10-12, it indicates that we are at the peak of economic growth, and whether it's 5, 8, or 12 there is also completely unimportant. In both cases, speculations are determined by the notorious "one-time and seasonal factors". The dynamics of both gold and oil will probably be further determined by inflation in the United States and the rate at which the dollar is losing its status as a global reserve currency (by the way, the rate was raised, see previous post). For oil, supply has already been curtailed during the Iran war; for gold, demand is supported by that same war and the beginning of unrest in the European Union. That is, both signals are upward in the medium term, the question is how quickly and effectively this will be implemented.