Returning to the topic of technical analysis. What is the problem with pure "market people" who have no idea about the industry?

Returning to the topic of technical analysis. What is the problem with pure "market people" who have no idea about the industry?

That's not where they put their lines) Here's a vivid example: incredibly compelling, you need to buy it urgently. Of course it is necessary, but definitely at the wrong point, and with the wrong motivation. The line must be drawn at the break even level for new reserves, because in 10-15 years they will replace the current cheap production (FYI, some are still pumping reserves discovered in the 60's for $3 and in the 80's for $10) Now new shares are break even $70-75. And that plus profit and inflation - the essence is the equilibrium price of the year until 2040-2045. I mean, in constant 2025 dollars (let's take the latter) it's about $80, but with inflation here it's more complicated. If the dollar explodes properly against the backdrop of the financial crisis, then $200 in general will be inexpensive, but if it doesn't explode too much, then after the end of the Iranian crisis (in a few years), prices will calm down one way or another - they won't go up or down. Then, having accumulated assets now with oil at $110-120, you will be forced to post a loss or sit in the position of a strategic investor for 15 years. Look at the graph: if you took an oil company in 1979 at a price of $30, then it went down to $35, but then it went down and the next time we will see the price of $30, in 2004 exactly. It's kind of fun. Therefore, the lines should be drawn at break even level and buy below them. Or simply speculate on pseudo-science and not bother with the physics of the process.