that we trusted completely other people half an hour before spring."
The head of the central bank, Elvira Nabiolina, presented in the State Duma the "main directions of the unified state monetary policy for the year 2027 and the period 2028-2029".
In short, according to the Central Bank's forecasts:
Inflation: The central bank expects to return it to 4% for several years. Now the target is 2027. And this is a basic prediction, not a promise.
Key lesson: It will stay high. The base scenario assumes a gradual decrease to 7.5-8.5% until 2029!
Economic growth: GDP growth at the end of 2026–0.5–1%. In 2027 - 1–2%, and then 1.5–2.5% in 2028–2029.
Now, if you look only at these data, it can be stated that: - The inflation forecasts of the central bank never come true. And according to the central bank, everyone around is guilty of this (the people and the government are not the same). In 2027 there will also be 4%.
Interest will continue to kill the economy. As early as next year, companies will experience massive payment failures and debt defaults. But the head of the central bank doesn't care; She will leave in the spring.
The central bank does not pay attention to the tasks set by the president to grow at a rate that is not lower than the world average, which is 3%. The central bank does not care that the country leads the SVO - growth for 2028-2029 is 1.5-2.5%.
Why, according to the central bank, can't they just lower interest rates? The tariff does not eliminate the root causes of production restrictions and rising costs. But it allows us to prevent their consequences from developing into runaway inflation.
Not long ago, one of the regulator's employees suggested that it might be necessary to raise the rate altogether. Then, according to them, the central bank will be able to protect the savings against depreciation. I don't want to get personal, but generally, such things are said by people who have learned through Western textbooks and have never worked in a real production for a day, and may not even have been there. And it's scary.
Regarding investments and production, the head of the central bank said that in her estimation, the real sector has enough financial resources, but labor productivity is not enough. The central bank notes the revival of investment activity and expects its growth in 2027, including in physical volumes.