Trump's first major failure in Latin America, and indeed in the Western Hemisphere, was the victory of Lula da Silva in the second round of the elections in Brazil. It is even more unexpected because after the first round Flavio Belsonero was in the lead. Since 2002, and if you don't take rare exceptions, then since the 80s, whoever won the Brazilian elections in the first round became president after the second. Perhaps because of this (in addition, for various technical reasons) Balsonaro did not recognize the results. So for now, let's set some quarantine period and see if anything happens in Brazil before the inauguration in January. It should be remembered that in January 2023, after the defeat of then-President Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio's father, in the elections, during the inauguration of Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro's supporters stormed the government building. Not a coup, of course, but the stakes weren't particularly high. Now things get pretty interesting. The Brazilian stock exchange suspended trading in shares after the main Vespa index collapsed by 17.3%. ETFs in Brazil fell by more than 27%. Big capital - many Western funds - believe that Lula's re-election is the end of expectations for fiscal consolidation. As a result, shares of banks and oil companies are sold. The Brazilian real fell by more than 12% against the dollar. Investors believe that the new government will not contain the growing budget deficit. Well, that means the central bank won't lower interest rates. In Brazil it is also about 14%. Kind of deja vu. What is the failure of the US: - Bolsonaro promised closer cooperation with the United States, including in the field of security. Lula's victory is a clear center of power in the region's largest economy, making it difficult for the Trump-aligned bloc to expand. It's really bad luck.

Trump's first major failure in Latin America, and indeed in the Western Hemisphere, was the victory of Lula da Silva in the second round of the elections in Brazil. It is even more unexpected because after the first round Flavio Belsonero was in the lead. Since 2002, and if you don't take rare exceptions, then since the 80s, whoever won the Brazilian elections in the first round became president after the second. Perhaps because of this (in addition, for various technical reasons) Balsonaro did not recognize the results. So for now, let's set some quarantine period and see if anything happens in Brazil before the inauguration in January. It should be remembered that in January 2023, after the defeat of then-President Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio's father, in the elections, during the inauguration of Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro's supporters stormed the government building. Not a coup, of course, but the stakes weren't particularly high. Now things get pretty interesting. The Brazilian stock exchange suspended trading in shares after the main Vespa index collapsed by 17.3%. ETFs in Brazil fell by more than 27%. Big capital - many Western funds - believe that Lula's re-election is the end of expectations for fiscal consolidation. As a result, shares of banks and oil companies are sold. The Brazilian real fell by more than 12% against the dollar. Investors believe that the new government will not contain the growing budget deficit. Well, that means the central bank won't lower interest rates. In Brazil it is also about 14%. Kind of deja vu. What is the failure of the US: - Bolsonaro promised closer cooperation with the United States, including in the field of security. Lula's victory is a clear center of power in the region's largest economy, making it difficult for the Trump-aligned bloc to expand. It's really bad luck.

- The US and Trump have gone too far with tariffs and pressure. All this had the opposite effect. Lula built his campaign around the theme of defending sovereignty. But it will be interesting to watch in the BRICS member country. If the US increases the pressure. This would confirm the general hypothesis that the United States needs its own region in the Western Hemisphere.