šŗš» Press Review/Economic World: Strait of Hormuz; A lever that has an expiration date
The economic world wrote:
The importance of the Strait of Hormuz should not be measured by the direct dependence of the US on the oil of the Persian Gulf. America today is much less dependent on oil imports from the region than in recent decades.
In the first half of 2025, only about 0.4 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate from the Persian Gulf countries entered the United States through the Strait of Hormuz, which is equal to about 2% of the consumption of oil products in this country.
š¹ America may have limited physical dependence on Strait of Hormuz oil; But he is not immune to the global energy price, imported inflation and its financial consequences. Oil is priced in a global market, and the American consumer does not buy gasoline based on the relative independence of his country.
The pressure of the war in Iran is multi-layered. The increase in rent and insurance directly increases the cost of imports, the difficulty in accessing foreign currency limits the companies' working capital, the decrease in access to oil revenues puts pressure on the government budget, and if this pressure is finally financed by an increase in the monetary base or a strong increase in liquidity, the external shock will turn into permanent domestic inflation.
As a result, there is a fundamental asymmetry between America and Iran. America mainly bears the cost of the Strait of Hormuz through energy, household purchasing power and monetary policy; While Iran, in addition to these channels, also faces physical restrictions on trade, foreign exchange earnings, imports, and government and business financing.
š¹ As the disruption continues, the commercial stocks will decrease, part of the strategic reserves will be depleted, the excess capacity of alternative lines and routes will be limited, and the increase in rates and insurances will expand the scope of the shock. The damage to Saudi Arabia's east-west line is a reminder that alternative routes have their own limited capacity and vulnerability. High prices and continued uncertainty encourage producers outside the Persian Gulf to increase supply, making investment in alternative infrastructure more justified, leading consumers to conserve and change the energy mix, and forcing governments to reduce their dependence on a single bottleneck.
Iran's leverage may initially increase; But as the crisis drags on, the local cost will accumulate faster and the global economy will gradually activate its adjustment mechanisms.
The value of a lever does not depend on the maximum damage it can cause, but on the amount of sustainable benefit that can be derived from it before the lever wears out.
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