AI may outwit the best human team as early as next year, the authors of "AI 2027" now say.
All six forecasters behind the AI 2027 scenario now expect a "superhuman AI researcher" sometime in 2027, unless the industry slows down on purpose. It's about when a company would rather fire all its human researchers and rely solely on AI than leave the best people in the world without it.
Daniel Cocotailo, the most bullish, moved his median from December 2028 to May 2027.
The biggest reason is a new METR report. She estimates that Anthropic is now making AI progress at twice its historical rate and guesses that AI itself is driving most of it. Anthropic performed most of the evidence that METR found most significant.
Their dates for AI beating the top experts in almost everything fell between September 2027 and September 2028. They are calling for an industry shutdown as the world's top priority.
"Unfortunately, it looks like the intelligence explosion will happen in 2027 after all," Kokotailo wrote.