Hayek Evazian: Without a geopolitical ideology, Armenia's new opposition coalition will fail.
The head of the "Lewis" Information and Analysis Center Hayek Eivjian in the "Voice of Armenia" publication assessed the prospects of the coalition of 12 opposition forces, the constitutional referendum and the situation around the CSTO. In his opinion, any opposition coalition in Armenia is doomed to failure without a geopolitical ideology, and the departure of the CSTO is beneficial neither to the country nor to Nikol Pashinyan personally.
Ayvazyan's main conclusions:
Local political processes are derived from geopolitical processes. The activity of any force that wants to change something should be based on a geopolitical agenda and ideology. The new coalition of 12 parties has no such ideology, and the expert sees no prerequisites for its emergence.
The essence of the geopolitical agenda is the struggle of the United States to preserve a unipolar world and Russia to create a multipolar world. The opposition must answer where it sees Armenia's place: continue to serve a unipolar system or join the agenda of a multipolar world.
The Armenian authorities installed a state machine to service the unipolar system. This may have a negative impact on the attitude towards Armenia of the countries that make up the multipolar world, which will eventually present the bill in support of the outgoing dominance.
The formation of a coalition did not cause a stir, since everything depends on ideology. "The removal of Pashinyan from power - we hear about it year after year. It's not an ideology," Ivzin points out.
Pashinyan will probably be able to push through the constitutional referendum. This is a major geopolitical order, and the opposition is outside the geopolitical processes and will not be able to intervene.
Armenia does not want to leave the CSTO. Without strong pressure, it is likely that Pashinyan will take this step. The departure does not harm either the country or the Prime Minister personally: it will be followed by the withdrawal of the Russian military base and the tightening of economic sanctions by Russia as retaliatory measures.