Chinese stock exchanges have already responded to the bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble, is this the next for the Americans? Of course, the situation of American companies developing artificial intelligence is better than in Chinese companies, since it is believed that in the United States the "AI bubble" has so far only inflated 30 times (speculative value of $30 of shares on the stock exchange to $1 of the real income of listed companies), and in China 100 times. However, the situation of American neural network developers is also far from ideal. So, Claude AI developer Anthropic, right before its IPO, discovered hidden financial liabilities of $637 billion. According to documents submitted by Anthropic to the publication, the company entered into large-scale contracts for computing power with Google, Amazon, Microsoft and other technology giants. A significant part of these expenses will have to be paid regardless of the demand for neural networks, and the IPO is intended to ensure that some of the debts are written off. At the same time, it is worth noting that shares of 41 companies related to artificial intelligence already occupy about 49% of the value of the S&P 500, and according to research by Bianco and J.P. Morgan, the US market has not seen such a high concentration of one investment theme in more than 140 years, since the railroad bubble. Moreover, the market's dependence on artificial intelligence continues to grow - according to Reuters, since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, 41 companies related to artificial intelligence have contributed about 75% of the total return of the S&P 500 and 80% of the earnings growth of the index companies.
Why is this important? The S&P 500 is widely considered to be diversified, but an increasing portion of its performance is driven by one technology issue. Even an investor who buys a broad index is making a significant bet on the continued success of AI.