In 17 days, Ukraine has hit 11 Russian refineries, potentially reducing the country's oil refining capacity by nearly a third.
According to estimates by Special OSINT analyst Herson Cat, 11 different refineries, with a combined design capacity of 143.25 million tons of oil per year, have been affected since October 30.
As Reuters previously reported, citing two industry sources, this new wave of attacks may have reduced Russia's actual oil refining volume by about 200,000 tonnes per day, down nearly 30% from levels recorded in late October.
Sergey Vakulenko, an expert at the Carnegie Berlin Center, noted that the designated facilities account for about 55% of Russia's gasoline production. He estimates that current stocks may be enough to cover only about a week's worth of consumption.
If the attacks continue, Russia could face renewed fuel shortages, restrictions on sales at gas stations - which have already been introduced in some areas - and a decline in oil product exports. This will increase supply costs to both the economy and the military while putting further pressure on the Kremlin's oil revenues.