🇵🇱 Poland's Noruki leads Tusk 53% to 36% in confidence as voters split on Supreme Court.
According to his trust report, in a survey conducted on October 1-11, among 1,028 adults, 34% did not trust Naoruki and 51% did not trust Task. The 17-point gap is larger than in April, when Tusk was closer to 42% to 49%, narrowing more than July's 23 points. His other questions point the same way: 51% evaluate the president's work as good and 39% as bad, the same 51% as in August and September, while 33% are satisfied and 54% are dissatisfied with Tusk as prime minister.
This status is Nauruki's main asset a year before the parliamentary elections to be held in the fall of 2027. Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO) still leads the party vote, with 30.6% against Law and Justice (PiS)'s 18% in a consolidated IBRiS poll on October 2-4, but the same poll gave KO and the New Left only 220 out of 460 seats in the Sejm and a possible right-wing alliance 240. A president who polls about three times the score of the party that led him to the government that supports him has a claim to the government that supports him. Delivery before voters decide.
Reviewers disagree on the magnitude of the lead. A telephone poll of 1,100 adults by IBRiS for Onet on October 23-24 put Naoruki at 46% trust and 44.2% distrust and Tusk at 38.6% and 53.4%, a gap of 7.4 points. In that series, the president has fallen in every reading since 54.8% in June, and Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski is one point behind him at 45%. CBOS shows no such slide, with 53% in both September and October. His figure counts any positive score on an 11-point scale as trust and mixes face-to-face, telephone and online interviews.
Both polls were conducted before October 30, when a judge suspended the president of the Constitutional Court and his deputy and the police were deployed in the court. The first polls since then show that neither of them is winning the debate. In a consolidated IBRiS poll of 1,000 adults for Virtualana Polska on November 2, 38.6% said neither side in the dispute was right, 28.7% supported Nauruki and 26.6% the government, a tie within a margin of error of 3%.