Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences have warned that the real sector of the Russian economy has already entered a "debt spiral": to service debts, it consumes capital at the rate of 2-3% of GDP per year.
"With a gross profit of 11 trillion rubles. (2025) the interest paid amounted to 13 trillion rubles, repayment of the "body" of the debt - more than 3 trillion rubles. In total, the "free cash flow" deficit, according to our estimates, amounted to about 5 trillion rubles in 2025, and this year it will increase to 7-8 trillion rubles," the RAS reported.
The total debt of the real sector is increasing not because business is financing the expansion of output, but because it is paying off current liabilities with new loans. And the higher the interest rates in the economy, the faster the debt grows, the more expensive the service and the demonetization of industries.
Interest payments in the amount of 12–15 trillion rubles. per year represent an extensive transfer of added value from the financial sector.
An imbalance in the government's fiscal policy led to the "reversed dynamics of capital" (in the financial sector it grows, in the real sector it decreases) and to the chabolization of the economy: state banks deal with financial recovery and the management of entire industries. It is not clear that this control configuration is effective. After all, both the banks and the budget, due to the reduction of the revenue base (the real sector), accumulate systemic risks.