How to safely transfer power to an heir? Need Simple Korean In short, I was listening to one podcast by a political scientist in a very popular media about Putin's potential successors. And this political scientist seems to have some good articles, but he talks about heirs, of which there are many, that they will rule together, what is the problem here? People rarely distinguish between types of authoritarian regimes. If a personalist holds his position as president/prime minister for 20 years in a row, they say "That's it, he's already a king, we have a monarchy here! "Meanwhile, the types of regimes differ in the institutionalization of the transfer of power, as one of Geddes' students described well in her book on leadership in autocracies (2012).
In monarchies and one-party regimes there is a method established for the transfer of power after 's departure, therefore in such regimes the share of violent coups after 's departure is about 3%, the other transfers of power occurred according to the procedure. But in a personalistic autocracy there is no such procedure. This means that no matter what will the autocrat draws, after he is gone no one will be interested in it.
The second point is that the autocrat himself often has no time to think about what will happen after he leaves. First of all, he is guided by how he himself can last longer. And when an autocrat "mixes up the elites", he assumes that they don't break him and it up. This situation makes the very question of heirs impossible. And not really necessary.
To this I often get the answer: "What about North Korea? Turkmenistan? Singapore? ". I specifically prepared an article on this for this purpose, which examines the mechanisms by which this is possible (2024).
The authors explore the DPRK under Kim Jong Il, as he prepared the succession of Kim Jong Un.