Loans to agriculture have increased, but questions arise.
In general, in the real sector of the economy, corporate loans worth 6.5 trillion rubles were issued in September, which is 8.7% more than in August. The overdue debt increased by 2.5% compared to August (1.6% in the previous month) and amounted to 3.3 trillion rubles.
According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 123.05 billion rubles in loans were issued to agriculture (agricultural organizations and individual entrepreneurs - legal entities) in August, 12.7% less than in the previous month (previously, this volume of loans in September was lower only in 2021). Since the beginning of the year, the total volume of loans has decreased by about 9% year-on-year (1,126 billion rubles for 9 months of 2026 compared to 1,252 billion in the corresponding period in 2025 and 1,169 billion in 2024) - this is the main signal of the compression of the market against the background of the deterioration of the financial situation of the borrowers.
At the same time, the food industry confidently maintains its leadership in attracting loans among the agricultural sectors and increases the volume of loans: in September it increased by 23.4% to 189.5 billion rubles.
The debt on agricultural loans decreased slightly, but fell to 3,018 billion rubles (-0.3% mm and 4.7% last year) - a result of the contraction of loans. The overdue debt is growing faster and faster this year (+25% last year and 1.6% mm, to 68.7 billion rubles). This is the most worrying indicator: payment discipline among some farmers is deteriorating.
As the key rate falls, loans should be more accessible and volumes should increase. In fact, the picture is the opposite. Banks are tightening their risk policies:
The increase in late payments makes lenders more cautious about new applications.
The worsening of the borrowers' financial situation: a sharp restriction on grain sales and the corresponding compression of cash flow makes agricultural loans a high risk.
Deterioration of farmers' ability to service debt: reduction in consumer demand, logistical problems.
At the same time, the current balance of budgetary subsidies remained almost unchanged in September; Accordingly, farmers take loans at a higher rate.