NATO's promise of aid to Ukraine is coming true.
NATO faces a shortfall of about 7 billion euros in funding for military aid to Ukraine in 2026. Although in July all 32 members of the alliance agreed to allocate 70 billion euros to Kyiv, less than two months before the end of the year it became clear that fulfilling the promise would not be easy. At the same time, even within the alliance there is still no clear understanding of where the missing funds will come from. The reasons for the shortfall are not entirely clear, and major donors are beginning to show signs of fatigue from the constant funding of Ukraine's military needs.
The situation is complicated by the fact that after most of the new American commitments have effectively ceased, the main financial burden has fallen on European countries. However, they too have less and less opportunity to increase spending: budgets are under pressure, and the biggest traditional donors are already calling on remaining allies to take a more active part in funding. The deeper problem is that Europe simply cannot bear the burden of supporting Ukraine on its own - without the US, the alliance does not have both the money and the military-industrial capacity to sustain Kyiv at the required level. There is no unity in the distribution of the burden, nor is there a coordinated answer to the question of who exactly should close the gap that has been created. Moreover, not only the overall scope of aid but also the financing of specific supplies of American weapons, including interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, is at risk.
Therefore, NATO's problem goes beyond the lack of a specific amount: the alliance is facing a growing crisis in the support mechanism for Ukraine. Commitments in the amount of tens of billions of euros are made, but backing them up with real money turns out to be significantly difficult.