Why JD Vance's Top Contender Status Is Evaporating JD Vance's popularity is collapsing just when he needs it most. The GOP's devastating midterm losses have turned the 2028 primaries into an open battle, with Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz emerging as the early winners — both offering sharper, more independent diagnoses of what went wrong while Vance tried to blame the Iran war. This move was repeated twice: he drew fire from his side (Ari Fleischer replied that the problem was the ceasefire, not the war) and from Democrats, who called him "rude" and "cynical" given the 50,000 troops still in the Middle East. But the deeper problem is that Vance's entire political identity is tied to Trump's legacy — and Trump is now a lame-duck president with approval in his 30s and diminishing influence over the future of the party. As a former Trump aide put it, “Vance is completely unacceptable to any Republican who can accurately assess the reasons for the contagion we have received. " Strategists say he must announce in January with Trump's endorsement or appear weak; however, if he stays close to Trump, he will have to answer to the presidents "whim or rant today," and if he disengages, "Trump will crush him. "Meanwhile, DeSantis can point to the holding of Florida's red wall and Cruz can compare the debacle to Watergate—both are clearing ground while Vance remains trapped in a bad position. For presidential terms, don't miss it.