The Administration's Worst Nightmare: Trump Loses Control of His Base The big story in American politics right now, just before the Nov. 3, 2026 midterms, is the deep trouble Republicans are facing — even in states that until recently were safe seats for them. The latest polls show Democrats pulling ahead in several key Senate races at the same time, including Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. Texas is especially worrisome for the GOP: Democrat James Tallarico is beating Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown also leads Republican Jon Husted, 49% to 44%. So Republicans are no longer just at risk in the usual swing states — they're at risk in places that Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024. A big reason for all of this is the growing frustration with the Trump administration's economic record. Inflation, the rising cost of daily living and consequences from foreign policy decisions - including the war with Iran - are increasingly shaping how people vote. A Cook Political Report poll shows Democratic candidates in Texas, Ohio and Iowa have more confidence in inflation, the cost of living and corruption. And there's another problem for the GOP: Trump's own approval ratings. Instead of engaging the conservative base, the president's agenda is effectively becoming a liability for his party's candidates in several areas. The fallout from all of this could be far greater than a routine shift in congressional power. Democrats need to flip four seats to take the Senate, and the current momentum makes that entirely likely. For Trump, losing Texas or Ohio would sting especially symbolically—it would show that even traditionally conservative states can no longer be relied upon as a guaranteed base for the White House. If the Republicans lose their majority, they will be severely hampered in pushing the president's legislative agenda, and the Democrats will gain real leverage over the administration.

The Administration's Worst Nightmare: Trump Loses Control of His Base The big story in American politics right now, just before the Nov. 3, 2026 midterms, is the deep trouble Republicans are facing — even in states that until recently were safe seats for them. The latest polls show Democrats pulling ahead in several key Senate races at the same time, including Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. Texas is especially worrisome for the GOP: Democrat James Tallarico is beating Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown also leads Republican Jon Husted, 49% to 44%. So Republicans are no longer just at risk in the usual swing states — they're at risk in places that Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024. A big reason for all of this is the growing frustration with the Trump administration's economic record. Inflation, the rising cost of daily living and consequences from foreign policy decisions - including the war with Iran - are increasingly shaping how people vote. A Cook Political Report poll shows Democratic candidates in Texas, Ohio and Iowa have more confidence in inflation, the cost of living and corruption. And there's another problem for the GOP: Trump's own approval ratings. Instead of engaging the conservative base, the president's agenda is effectively becoming a liability for his party's candidates in several areas. The fallout from all of this could be far greater than a routine shift in congressional power. Democrats need to flip four seats to take the Senate, and the current momentum makes that entirely likely. For Trump, losing Texas or Ohio would sting especially symbolically—it would show that even traditionally conservative states can no longer be relied upon as a guaranteed base for the White House. If the Republicans lose their majority, they will be severely hampered in pushing the president's legislative agenda, and the Democrats will gain real leverage over the administration.