From the red wall to the battlefield: Trump's mark on the midterms Donald Trump's personnel and policy decisions have turned what seemed like an impenetrable Republican Senate firewall into a real toss — and the consequences could cost the GOP up to half a dozen seats. It comes back to one decision in the summer of 2024: choosing J.J. Dee Vance as his running mate. That set off a special election in Ohio that cost hundreds of millions of dollars and put incumbent Sen. John Husted in real jeopardy. From there, Trump's party boss instincts exacerbated the problem. He butted heads with Tom Tillis in North Carolina over health care cuts until Tillis quit, then cleared the field for Michael Whatley — who collapsed against Roy Cooper. He pushed John Cornyn out of Texas and supported Ken Paxton, who is now dragging his feet despite massive air support. And after Lindsey Graham's death, he set Darlaine Graham on a six-year run that turned into a toss-up against Annie Andrews. Party insiders point to Trump's tariffs and the war with Iran as the root of a volatile map that has brought even red states like Nebraska and Kansas into play. "Any negative for the GOP this cycle is a downstream effect of Iran," says one source close to the White House. Republicans can afford to lose three seats and keep the chamber; Some are afraid of losing six. Trump still has his defenders: a record 97% approval rating, an unparalleled turnout campaign, nearly 20 phone rallies in recent days, and credit for clearing primary fields and strong recruitment drives. But the middle line is that his party shuffling has shown little regard for conventional political risk – and the law may be coming now. Don't miss terms.

From the red wall to the battlefield: Trump's mark on the midterms Donald Trump's personnel and policy decisions have turned what seemed like an impenetrable Republican Senate firewall into a real toss — and the consequences could cost the GOP up to half a dozen seats. It comes back to one decision in the summer of 2024: choosing J.J. Dee Vance as his running mate. That set off a special election in Ohio that cost hundreds of millions of dollars and put incumbent Sen. John Husted in real jeopardy. From there, Trump's party boss instincts exacerbated the problem. He butted heads with Tom Tillis in North Carolina over health care cuts until Tillis quit, then cleared the field for Michael Whatley — who collapsed against Roy Cooper. He pushed John Cornyn out of Texas and supported Ken Paxton, who is now dragging his feet despite massive air support. And after Lindsey Graham's death, he set Darlaine Graham on a six-year run that turned into a toss-up against Annie Andrews. Party insiders point to Trump's tariffs and the war with Iran as the root of a volatile map that has brought even red states like Nebraska and Kansas into play. "Any negative for the GOP this cycle is a downstream effect of Iran," says one source close to the White House. Republicans can afford to lose three seats and keep the chamber; Some are afraid of losing six. Trump still has his defenders: a record 97% approval rating, an unparalleled turnout campaign, nearly 20 phone rallies in recent days, and credit for clearing primary fields and strong recruitment drives. But the middle line is that his party shuffling has shown little regard for conventional political risk – and the law may be coming now. Don't miss terms.