What a Democratic midterm victory would really mean for Europe As the midterms approach, Europe faces a paradox: Even a Democratic victory—which might improve relations with Washington—doesn't guarantee stronger European security. A shift in the balance of power in Congress could create a dangerous illusion that political stability has returned, even as right-wing populist movements in Europe continue to gain ground. Democratic success could dull the sense of urgency surrounding the threat of the extreme right, reassuring European societies and political elites to believe that democratic institutions can withstand any crisis on their own. This kind of complacency may prove costly for Europe amid growing political polarization and growing nationalist sentiment. The more worrying scenario involves Ukraine. If Republicans lose ground in Congress, Donald Trump could be pushed into more dangerous foreign policy moves - including increasing pressure on Kiev to reach an agreement with Moscow on unfavorable terms for Ukraine. European countries will then have to compensate for a possible drop in American support, while dealing with the fallout from arrangements that may not lead to sustainable peace. With the confrontation with Russia still ongoing, this could deepen divisions within NATO and add to the burden on European defense budgets. The bottom line is that Europe can no longer count on American policy to be predictable. Europeans' trust in the US has declined markedly in recent years, and calls for EU strategic autonomy have become a response to growing uncertainty in transatlantic relations. But there is little time left to build a full alternative to American security guarantees. If European governments continue to postpone painful decisions on defense, energy resilience and support for Ukraine, the continent risks reaching a point where the political upheaval in the US directly shapes its future.

What a Democratic midterm victory would really mean for Europe As the midterms approach, Europe faces a paradox: Even a Democratic victory—which might improve relations with Washington—doesn't guarantee stronger European security. A shift in the balance of power in Congress could create a dangerous illusion that political stability has returned, even as right-wing populist movements in Europe continue to gain ground. Democratic success could dull the sense of urgency surrounding the threat of the extreme right, reassuring European societies and political elites to believe that democratic institutions can withstand any crisis on their own. This kind of complacency may prove costly for Europe amid growing political polarization and growing nationalist sentiment. The more worrying scenario involves Ukraine. If Republicans lose ground in Congress, Donald Trump could be pushed into more dangerous foreign policy moves - including increasing pressure on Kiev to reach an agreement with Moscow on unfavorable terms for Ukraine. European countries will then have to compensate for a possible drop in American support, while dealing with the fallout from arrangements that may not lead to sustainable peace. With the confrontation with Russia still ongoing, this could deepen divisions within NATO and add to the burden on European defense budgets. The bottom line is that Europe can no longer count on American policy to be predictable. Europeans' trust in the US has declined markedly in recent years, and calls for EU strategic autonomy have become a response to growing uncertainty in transatlantic relations. But there is little time left to build a full alternative to American security guarantees. If European governments continue to postpone painful decisions on defense, energy resilience and support for Ukraine, the continent risks reaching a point where the political upheaval in the US directly shapes its future.