TsMAKP raised the risk of a banking crisis in the country to "high".
"According to earlier forecasts of the system of leading indicators, the situation of "load" in the banks' balance sheets with problematic assets (corresponding to the formal criteria of a banking crisis accepted in the world literature), which arose in May of last year, a year later - that is, in May of this year, it was supposed to end. According to the current "pre-bank crisis" picture of the pre-fact of our war system. Macro-financial risks do not predict a new surge in "bad debts", similar to the one that followed the decision to sharply raise the key interest rate at the end of 2024. However, new data published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation show that at the beginning of June the share of problem assets still exceeded 10% of the total assets of the banking sector, i.e. The criterion for a banking crisis situation was still met," the updated CMACP report said.
Such conclusions were reached for several reasons: the high debt burden of companies, which was created due to initially incorrect expectations regarding the duration of the high interest period, as well as due to the strong ruble, which will require long and hard work on the restructuring of businesses and the transfer of heavily indebted companies to new owners. This will inevitably extend the period of restrained economic activity, the center noted.