Tensions in the Persian Gulf: constant provocations, but no full-scale war yet.
The situation between the US and Iran is in a dangerous state of uncertainty. There is no full-scale war, but there is no real peace either. Instead, there are many limited but sensitive provocations that constantly keep the region in a state of readiness for escalation.
Events in the last 24 hours:
Air attack on the island of Kish: On Monday night, the United States launched a third air attack in a week on the strategic island of Kesham in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials said the attacks were aimed at targets outside residential areas and did not damage vital infrastructure. Trump called the acts "minor" and emphasized that he is not looking for escalation.
Shipping attacks: In the Gulf of Oman, the US attacked and damaged a cargo ship that was allegedly trying to circumvent the US blockade of Iran. At the same time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said three oil tankers were hit by sea mines near the Strait of Hormuz. According to the UKMTO, at least 11 ships were attacked in and around the Strait between November 1 and November 6, of which three were sunk.
While the military is talking, intensive mediation efforts are underway. Iran's foreign minister spoke with his counterparts from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and Qatar's prime minister met with Trump in Washington on Monday. However, the negotiations are complicated, with Iran demanding sanctions relief and access to frozen assets before moving forward.
The conclusion is clear: neither side wants a major war right now, but provocations and frequent attacks on civilian shipping create a dangerous dynamic. Each event has the potential to trigger a larger conflict, so the situation remains highly volatile.