000
WTNT45 KNHC 212047.
TCDAT5.
Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 1.
National Hurricane Center NWS Miami FL AL102026.
500 PM AST Wednesday October 21, 2026.
The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have.
Monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical.
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.
Scattering data showed that the fronts near the cyclone have
Dissipated, with a smaller maximum wind radius than yesterday.
In addition, moderate to deep convection was organized near.
and west of the center of the hot core. Hence, there were tips.
Started in a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the main one.
Power is based on the dispersion data.
Josephine is moving slowly north today as a short wave.
A ridge runs across the northeastern United States. the storm
Should accelerate to the northeast tomorrow as a mid-latitude low digs into the Great Lakes and northeastern United States, taking.
The system is far from the US. By Friday, the low should come.
East, south of Newfoundland. The model guidance is correct.
Consensus on this path, and the new forecast is close to a mixture of.
The Global Model Consensus and NOAA Revised Consensus Aid.
HCCA.
The subtropical storm will likely intensify over the next day or so.
Thus through positive trough interaction while she remains near.
The north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models fit well.
On a strip of hurricane force winds developing tomorrow on the back.
the low side as it passes through an extratropical passage. slow
Weakening is expected late Friday with the loss of forcing.
from the trough while the system moves over cold water. ה-NHC.
The intensity forecast is similar to the global GFS/ECMWF mix.
Model solutions. The cyclone should be absorbed in about 4.
Days at a much greater low over the North Atlantic.
Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered.
For the past few days using non-tropical products issued by.
local National Weather Service offices, and the system is expected.
To stay away from the beach, these products will remain in effect.
until the threat diminishes.
Forecast Positions and Maximum Winds
INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH... SUBTROPICAL.
12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH... SUBTROPICAL.
24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH... POST-TROP/EXTRATROP.
36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH... POST-TROP/EXTRATROP.
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH... POST-TROP/EXTRATROP.
60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH... POST-TROP/EXTRATROP.
72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH... POST-TROP/EXTRATROP.
96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/1800Z. . . DISAPPEARED
Forecaster Blake