000
WTNT44 KNHC 100845
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 15
National Hurricane Center NWS Miami FL AL092026
400 AM CDT Saturday October 10, 2026
Isaias has weakened very rapidly over Alabama and transitioned
into a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite images show that all deep
convection has been stripped well to the north of the low-level
center, with a warm front extending eastward from the former
tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory on Isaias, with
an initial intensity of 30 kt determined from surface observations.
The cyclone is expected to move northward to north-northwestward
this weekend and weaken gradually as it moves across the Tennessee and
Ohio valleys. No significant changes were made to the track or
intensity forecasts, except for lower wind speeds on day 1. Note that
there is still a risk of some strong gusty winds over the southern Appalachians as the cyclone moves just west of those
mountains, along with the potential for heavy rain causing flash flooding.
This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system
can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 1000 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header
WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
United States rainfall forecasts are at:
and flash flood risk forecasts can be found at
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with the post-tropical remnants of
Isaias will spread quickly northward into the Tennessee
Valley, the southern Appalachians, and the Southeast today. Considerable
flash and urban flooding will be possible. Also, landslides will be
possible across the southern Appalachians. Additional heavy rains are possible in parts of northwest Florida and heavy rains are
also possible across the coast in southwest Florida, resulting in
flash and urban flooding.
2. Post-storm safety: follow advice from local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outdoors at least 20 feet away from
residences and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
cleanup, be cautious when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to prevent heat exhaustion.
Forecast Positions and Maximum Winds
INIT 10/0900Z 32.0N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...post-tropical
12H 10/1800Z 33.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/0600Z 35.2N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 37.6N 82.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/0600Z...dissipated
Forecaster Blake