Democratic candidate Hamilton is leading his Republican rival Marshall in the 2026 US Senate race in Kansas, according to reputable pollsters. President Trump won the state by a comfortable margin of 16% in 2024. The last time Kansas elected a Democratic senator was in 1932. Pollsters Insider Advantage and Emerson College correctly called 94% and 82% of the key races in the 2024 cycle. Polling data from Kansas fits a larger pattern of several "safe red" states, such as Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska and Alaska, becoming key battleground states in the 2026 midterms.

Democratic candidate Hamilton is leading his Republican rival Marshall in the 2026 US Senate race in Kansas, according to reputable pollsters. President Trump won the state by a comfortable margin of 16% in 2024. The last time Kansas elected a Democratic senator was in 1932. Pollsters Insider Advantage and Emerson College correctly called 94% and 82% of the key races in the 2024 cycle. Polling data from Kansas fits a larger pattern of several "safe red" states, such as Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska and Alaska, becoming key battleground states in the 2026 midterms.