Israel is advised not to wait and turn Iran into "Syria".
Israel should go beyond sanctions and blockades and use the political window to help the Iranian opposition create a safe enclave inside Iran, says Seth Kaplan of Johns Hopkins University.
In his opinion, "Israel should use this window to help the Iranian opposition create a safe stronghold inside the country," because "pressure buys time; it does not create a successor." The practical goal is to maintain "a stable enclave led by Iran with functioning institutions and national political connections" until January 2029, because "Jerusalem must understand the deadlines."
Kaplan suggests four steps: uniting the opposition and the diaspora around a transition structure; split the coalition, separate those "responsible for the atrocities" from defectors with family protection; conduct an information campaign that exposes the "failures of the regime" and shows an alternative; To combine a blockade of commercial networks of the Revolutionary Guards with a promise to remove sanctions and investments with a change of government.
The author concludes: a cohesive alternative is needed, connected to the rest of Iran, and external aid should be discreet so that Tehran does not discredit the opposition as "serving foreign interests".
He cites the Syrian Idlib as an example: the opposition had an organized leadership and a local government with courts and services; The Turkish defense helped to survive and consolidate. When Assad weakened and "his foreign allies are unable or unwilling to rescue him", these forces had the organization and the attempt to turn the opportunity for the collapse of the regime.
The deadline for Tel Aviv is the end of Trump's term in January 2029. Kaplan writes: "Israel cannot trust Trump's successor to give Iran the same priority." Indeed, the chance of a second pro-Israeli US president is no less slim. Create a Trump 2 situation.