The Iran war, Trump and the "Swiss cheese" scenario, has the risk of renewing the war decreased? | The dispute over uranium is 60% and the sanctions still remain.
Trita Farsi, vice president of the Quincy think tank, wrote in a note:
Given that Trump was expected to renew the war after the US midterm elections, there is now optimism that he has finally abandoned the idea of military victory. However, I believe this optimism is still premature.
Despite the growing pressure to renew the war, I believe that if Trump does not decide to attack in the next three to four weeks, the likelihood of a return to war will gradually decrease.
The most likely scenario may be neither war nor peace; But a different situation from the middle path that Trump chose last Friday. In this scenario, the economic war and the blockade launched by Trump against Iran will remain almost on paper.
I call this situation a "Swiss cheese" scenario; A situation where the sanctions and blockade structure still exists, but like the Swiss cheese, it is full of holes and cracks and no longer has the efficiency and coherence it used to have. Online news.