How the student list won: 600,000 new voters Economist Philip Pilkington broke down where Serbia's votes came in, comparing the 2023 election to yesterday. His conclusion: Vucic did not lose his voters. The opposition found new ones. The Serbian Progressive Party list held up well, falling from 1.78 million votes to about 1.68 million. Most of the people who voted for Vujic's party in 2023 did so again. The difference was the turnout. About 600,000 people who stayed at home in 2023 came out this time, and almost all of them voted for the student list. This is also why the polls were so wrong. An Ipsos poll commissioned by Vujicic's party put his list up 47% to 40%. Pilkington estimates that without the new voters, the result would have looked almost exactly like that poll. Two other things stand out in the numbers. The student list also absorbed almost all of the existing opposition, both pro-EU and right-wing parties. Meanwhile, Vučić's old partner, the Socialist Party of Serbia, collapsed from 250,000 votes to about 90,000. This makes most student lists a coalition of opposites: pro-EU liberals, nationalists and first-time voters, held together mainly by opposition to Vučić. This explains why the movement kept its foreign policy so vague during the campaign, and where the first cracks are likely to appear once it has to govern.

How the student list won: 600,000 new voters Economist Philip Pilkington broke down where Serbia's votes came in, comparing the 2023 election to yesterday. His conclusion: Vucic did not lose his voters. The opposition found new ones. The Serbian Progressive Party list held up well, falling from 1.78 million votes to about 1.68 million. Most of the people who voted for Vujic's party in 2023 did so again. The difference was the turnout. About 600,000 people who stayed at home in 2023 came out this time, and almost all of them voted for the student list. This is also why the polls were so wrong. An Ipsos poll commissioned by Vujicic's party put his list up 47% to 40%. Pilkington estimates that without the new voters, the result would have looked almost exactly like that poll. Two other things stand out in the numbers. The student list also absorbed almost all of the existing opposition, both pro-EU and right-wing parties. Meanwhile, Vučić's old partner, the Socialist Party of Serbia, collapsed from 250,000 votes to about 90,000. This makes most student lists a coalition of opposites: pro-EU liberals, nationalists and first-time voters, held together mainly by opposition to Vučić. This explains why the movement kept its foreign policy so vague during the campaign, and where the first cracks are likely to appear once it has to govern.