Politico published a report on November 13, 2026, citing a study by NATO's Energy Security Center of Excellence.
The findings reveal a potentially serious weakness in NATO's ability to sustain large-scale air operations during a protracted European war.
According to the study:
- About 25% of refineries in Europe have been closed since 2009.
Europe reportedly has only about 49 days of jet fuel inventory coverage, compared to about 120 days for petroleum products in total.
- In a major NATO conflict, approximately 45% of the fuel supply for civil aviation may need to be diverted immediately to military requirements.
- By 2035, this rate may rise to 60%.
- Even requiring all available civil aviation fuel would not eliminate the expected shortage in the study's worst-case scenario.
NATO's energy transition is part of the problem.
The study identifies the decline in refining capacity and the European carbon policy as contributing factors.
Their recommendations include preserving refinery capacity, expanding strategic reserves, diversifying imports and speeding up alternative fuel production.