Claims pessimism: experts expect a collapse in the Russian railways Only a month ago we were very skeptical of the negative forecast of the analyst Euler Alexei Polishchuk - he predicted a 1.4% decrease in load for the year. But now more apocalyptic characters are heard. IPEM Deputy Head Vladimir Savchuk talks about a 1.8% decrease: we will end 2026 with a rather dismal result: in the basic case, about minus 1.8% in terms of loading. It is likely that the charge cycle will also enter a slightly negative area. We will remind you that for nine months the charging decreased by 0.7%, and the charging cycle increased by 0.9%. It turns out that separately in the fourth quarter, IPEM expects a loading collapse of about 5%, and a cargo turnover of about 3%. so much By the way, just three months ago Vladimir Savchuk predicted something completely different - a decrease at the end of the year in the base case of only 0.2% and a slight increase in the second half of the year. The expert sees the main reason in the sharp reduction in traffic towards the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin. But the Black Sea stood still in September, and such a sharp decline was not observed. In October, in the south it seemed that the situation even started to improve a little. And the redirection of cargo flows, in theory, should somehow compensate for the southern losses. So if these predictions come true, then the reason is quite different - Russian Railways does not cope with this reorientation. Complaints about uncoordinated inquiries have recently been flying from all over (especially towards the Baltic ports). In addition, of course, an early rate increase. However, let's wait until Monday, when the charging figures for October come out and it becomes clear how bad everything really is. Charge flow in Telegram | up to MAX.