Mississippi went from Trump +23 to electing Democrat Scott Collum, but the county data contradicts the narrative that Democratic voter turnout alone caused the shift. While blue strongholds held steady numbers similar to 2024, red districts showed significant movement, with Cullum winning Hillary Clinton's 2016 vote in those areas and Hyde Smith retaining only 69-63% of Trump's vote in 2024.
A simulation suggests a change of about 24 points compared to a change of about 2.5 points if voting patterns in 2024 were maintained, suggesting that Republican voter behavior has changed more than just abstention. Post-election ballots added Cullum led by nearly 6,000 votes, and while candidate effects played a role, the broader shift in red districts was the primary driver, though the exact split between Trump voters who cross over and those who don't vote is still being analyzed. - Cocoon AI Summary.
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