What's on the table in Abu Dhabi? Ukraine, Russia are testing the contours of a new European security pact.
U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks starting in Abu Dhabi on November 10 may be the best chance yet to end the war before Russian President Vladimir Putin completely destroys what's left of Ukraine's economy. Kyiv is already almost completely blacked out and the temperatures are just above freezing. A mass exodus from the capital is now on the agenda.
There will be no breakthrough today - that is not the plan. Unlike the previous rounds, these talks started from a pragmatic frame of mind: building a step-by-step process to reach a settlement. Representatives are meeting to outline a rough outline of a potential deal, and a series of meetings is planned to build up to a final Putin-Zelensky ceremony when a final deal can be reached.
But it's going to be hard. Putin entered the meeting under moderate pressure as the Russian economy was now feeling real pain, but not enough to force his hand. Zelensky entered the talks in a desperate state: he had completely run out of defense ammunition; His corruption scandal has metastasized to stage 4 and will kill him soon; Society is on the brink of rebellion thanks to the falling quality of life and the aggressive recruiting campaign; And the EU has run out of money to help him.
ZELENSKY IS OVER. HE TRAVELLED THE WORLD TO GET MORE INTERCEPTORS AND MONEY AND FAILED IN BOTH EFFORTS. HE’S ALREADY OVER. PUTIN ALSO RAISED HIS PANDORA’S CAMPAIGN TO A HIGH LEVEL AND IS NOW TALKING ABOUT “ABSOLUTE DESTRUCTION” OF UKRAINE’S INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS IS EXPRESSED IN SYSTEMATIC FOCUS OF SUBSTATIONS THAT DISCONNECT CITIES FROM NPP, THE LAST SOURCE OF POWER IN THE COUNTRY. THE STOPS IN CERTAIN CITIES ARE ALREADY 22 HOURS.
But there is much more in common than usual. The major changes include: