Military strikes have degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure without resolving the underlying uncertainty. The program may be smaller and less operationally capable, but also more dispersed and opaque. Destroying a pickaxe won't change that, by itself. With renewed U.S. attacks against Iran looking increasingly possible, attention has once again turned to Mount Picxa, the deep-buried complex near Natanz. What would another attack actually do? Makush is believed to extend 80-100 meters (on the conservative side) below the bedrock, much deeper than Fordov. Iran began developing the complex after the Natanz bombing in 2020 as an effort to protect its nuclear infrastructure from attacks by the US and Israel. Israeli intelligence estimated that Iran transferred thousands of centrifuges and advanced components to Kosh after the June 2025 war. This remains unverified publicly. Satellite images cannot determine what is underground / whether the equipment has been installed. CSIS documented extensive construction and fortification in 2026, but images showed blocked entrances and little discernible activity. There is no public confirmation that enrichment has begun or that the site is active. Regardless of the activity at Machosh, it hardly represents the last or sole remnant of the Iranian nuclear program. Iran has probably dispersed some of its centrifuges and there is a lot we don't know. The main US option for deeply buried targets is the GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP). Weighing 30,000 kg, it is GPS-guided and designed to penetrate mined structures before detonation. But its effectiveness depends largely on the material it encounters. The GBU-57's publicly specified penetration capability of about 60 meters needs certification. This is not a proven ability to penetrate 60 meters of granite. Its performance varies with the geological medium, and detailed assessments of its effectiveness remain classified.

Military strikes have degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure without resolving the underlying uncertainty. The program may be smaller and less operationally capable, but also more dispersed and opaque. Destroying a pickaxe won't change that, by itself. With renewed U.S. attacks against Iran looking increasingly possible, attention has once again turned to Mount Picxa, the deep-buried complex near Natanz. What would another attack actually do? Makush is believed to extend 80-100 meters (on the conservative side) below the bedrock, much deeper than Fordov. Iran began developing the complex after the Natanz bombing in 2020 as an effort to protect its nuclear infrastructure from attacks by the US and Israel. Israeli intelligence estimated that Iran transferred thousands of centrifuges and advanced components to Kosh after the June 2025 war. This remains unverified publicly. Satellite images cannot determine what is underground / whether the equipment has been installed. CSIS documented extensive construction and fortification in 2026, but images showed blocked entrances and little discernible activity. There is no public confirmation that enrichment has begun or that the site is active. Regardless of the activity at Machosh, it hardly represents the last or sole remnant of the Iranian nuclear program. Iran has probably dispersed some of its centrifuges and there is a lot we don't know. The main US option for deeply buried targets is the GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP). Weighing 30,000 kg, it is GPS-guided and designed to penetrate mined structures before detonation. But its effectiveness depends largely on the material it encounters. The GBU-57's publicly specified penetration capability of about 60 meters needs certification. This is not a proven ability to penetrate 60 meters of granite. Its performance varies with the geological medium, and detailed assessments of its effectiveness remain classified.