The stock market in Moscow risks reaching 2,400 points, and Brent is trying to recover after the collapse.
The main thing from today's episode of the show Capital with Grigory Baglerian:
The Moscow stock market index loses about 0.4% and is again approaching the support zone. If this level is not met, the next target could be 2,400 points.
The market is waiting for the second day of the negotiations on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi. So far there are no new signals, and low activity and limited ruble liquidity are holding back purchases.
Even the recovery in oil prices is not helping Russian stocks. The shares of Gazprom, Rosneft, Lukoil and Sberbank, the main heavyweight of the index, are falling.
The yuan is gradually strengthening against the ruble. Participants in the foreign exchange market admit to a decrease in sales of export earnings against the background of expectations for a further decrease in energy prices.
Brent recovered to $92 a barrel after several days of sales. For now, this is more of a technical rebound after a strong fall than the start of sustainable growth.
For the oil market, the key level is $94 per barrel. If Brent ends the week above this level, the chances of a return to $100 will increase significantly.
The United States still does not consider the military scenario against Iran to be major. According to the head of the State Department Marco Rubio, Washington expects to obtain concessions from Tehran through economic pressure and limiting oil exports.
The main risk for oil is independent escalation from Iran. Tehran may try to break the blockade or cut off the remaining supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, but the market so far sees such a scenario as unlikely.
Speculators continue to bet on lower oil prices. Expectations for the escalation and weakening of energy demand so far outweigh the fears of new supply disruptions.