Brent fell below 89 dollars, and the Moscow stock exchange again approached 2,440 points.
The main thing from today's episode of the show Capital with Grigory Baglerian:
Moscow's stock index accelerated its decline amid sales in the oil and gas sector. Falling oil prices are forcing investors to get rid of the shares of Russia's largest exporters.
The stock exchange in Moscow again approached the support zone of about 2,440 points. The market exhibited similar dynamics last week; Further movement will depend largely on news from Abu Dhabi.
Investors are waiting for the first results of the tripartite negotiations on Ukraine. The composition of the delegations offers a more substantive discussion on security issues, which supports expectations for a possible compromise.
The markets are starting to establish themselves for a long period of escalation. We are talking about both the conflict surrounding Ukraine and the confrontation between the US and Iran. The proponents admit that the reduction of tensions may take a year or even two years.
Brent fell below $89, US oil fell below $84. In terms of speed, the current drop in quotation marks is similar to the correction after previous agreements between the US and Iran in the months of May-June.
What are the next benchmarks for Brent are $86 and $80 per barrel. With further reduction in geopolitical risks, the market may continue to decline.
The main risk to the oil market is an unexpected escalation around Iran. If the US does not lift the blockade and sanctions, Tehran may return to the forceful scenario, which could sharply reverse oil prices.
There are still differences of opinion within the Iranian leadership about further actions. Supporters of a diplomatic settlement try to contain the more rigid position of the Revolutionary Guards.
Global stock markets are rising following expectations of de-escalation. The dollar is weakening, and the beginning of the week is characterized by cautious optimism.