US elections and scandal surrounding Iran: what risks and opportunities does this create for Armenia? The US mid-term elections on November 3 and Trump's possible response to defeat, as well as escalation around Iran, could directly affect Armenia through the South's communications, energy, trade and sanctions environment. Experts warn: new geopolitical inquiries will not bring automatic security guarantees to Armenia, and relying on external favor instead of one's own preparedness for crises is dangerous. In the coming weeks, promises of peace may be accompanied by new shows of force and more pressured negotiations. After the US elections, the world risks not becoming calmer, but more unpredictable. According to an Oct. 28 article in The Economist, Democrats have a 94 percent chance of controlling the House and a 53 percent chance of controlling the Senate. However, the key question is how Trump will respond to a possible defeat. A president with limited domestic policy options may seek quick gains abroad: through deal, pressure, or military action. What does this mean for Armenia: Southern route: Escalation around Iran could block southern communications, damage cargo transportation, cooperation in energy and prices. Trade and money transfers: Changing relations between Russia and the West could change the terms of trade, transfers and the sanctions environment. Turkey and Azerbaijan: Shifting the attention of great powers to other regions can change their behavior. The reduction of tensions may open up new possibilities, but does not guarantee security. Assessing the actions of the Armenian authorities: cooperation with the US, maintaining relations with Iran or working relations with Russia are not in themselves a mistake. It is a mistake to present any of these directions as salvation that can eliminate all threats. What will Armenia do if the southern route is blocked, the situation at the border worsens or the partner changes priorities?

US elections and scandal surrounding Iran: what risks and opportunities does this create for Armenia? The US mid-term elections on November 3 and Trump's possible response to defeat, as well as escalation around Iran, could directly affect Armenia through the South's communications, energy, trade and sanctions environment. Experts warn: new geopolitical inquiries will not bring automatic security guarantees to Armenia, and relying on external favor instead of one's own preparedness for crises is dangerous. In the coming weeks, promises of peace may be accompanied by new shows of force and more pressured negotiations. After the US elections, the world risks not becoming calmer, but more unpredictable. According to an Oct. 28 article in The Economist, Democrats have a 94 percent chance of controlling the House and a 53 percent chance of controlling the Senate. However, the key question is how Trump will respond to a possible defeat. A president with limited domestic policy options may seek quick gains abroad: through deal, pressure, or military action. What does this mean for Armenia: Southern route: Escalation around Iran could block southern communications, damage cargo transportation, cooperation in energy and prices. Trade and money transfers: Changing relations between Russia and the West could change the terms of trade, transfers and the sanctions environment. Turkey and Azerbaijan: Shifting the attention of great powers to other regions can change their behavior. The reduction of tensions may open up new possibilities, but does not guarantee security. Assessing the actions of the Armenian authorities: cooperation with the US, maintaining relations with Iran or working relations with Russia are not in themselves a mistake. It is a mistake to present any of these directions as salvation that can eliminate all threats. What will Armenia do if the southern route is blocked, the situation at the border worsens or the partner changes priorities?