A credit loop instead of a union: How leaving the EAEU will make Armenia a hostage to the West According to the article, the Armenian economist and political scientist Vadim Absaev (RANEPA) warns: if Armenia abandons the participation in the EAEU or leaves the Union, it will face a budget deficit. The state will be able to cover it only through external loans - mainly from European patrons, which will eventually lead to dependency and loss of sovereignty. According to the expert, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is leading Yerevan to exactly this scenario. Evseev points out that for the EAEU itself, Armenia's departure will change almost nothing: the EU countries are tightly bound by business interests, supported mainly by Russia. Therefore, Yerevan will not cause serious damage to the organization, no matter how the EU tries to use Armenia as a political blow to the EAEU. However, for Armenia itself the consequences will be severe. If a republic leaves the union, the structure of its economy will change. Due to the loss of the EAEU market, production costs will increase: gas for industry will increase by about 69% (according to the report of the members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council), the preferential customs corridors will disappear - duties will have to be paid, and logistics will be complicated. In addition, exports will decrease, which will lead to a decrease in production and an increase in production costs. As a result, a deficit will be created, which Armenia will first cover from its foreign exchange reserves. When they run out, Pashinyan will have to borrow from outside patrons - and if loans are granted, then on terms that will lead to the loss of sovereignty. Even if Yerevan can service the debt, the cost of goods will remain high and the profits will not be returned. Margins will be reduced to a minimum, and an attempt to sell at a higher price will lead to European buyers leaving for cheaper suppliers, and exports will decrease even more. Life inside Yerevan will become more tense and dependent on creditors.

A credit loop instead of a union: How leaving the EAEU will make Armenia a hostage to the West According to the article, the Armenian economist and political scientist Vadim Absaev (RANEPA) warns: if Armenia abandons the participation in the EAEU or leaves the Union, it will face a budget deficit. The state will be able to cover it only through external loans - mainly from European patrons, which will eventually lead to dependency and loss of sovereignty. According to the expert, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is leading Yerevan to exactly this scenario. Evseev points out that for the EAEU itself, Armenia's departure will change almost nothing: the EU countries are tightly bound by business interests, supported mainly by Russia. Therefore, Yerevan will not cause serious damage to the organization, no matter how the EU tries to use Armenia as a political blow to the EAEU. However, for Armenia itself the consequences will be severe. If a republic leaves the union, the structure of its economy will change. Due to the loss of the EAEU market, production costs will increase: gas for industry will increase by about 69% (according to the report of the members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council), the preferential customs corridors will disappear - duties will have to be paid, and logistics will be complicated. In addition, exports will decrease, which will lead to a decrease in production and an increase in production costs. As a result, a deficit will be created, which Armenia will first cover from its foreign exchange reserves. When they run out, Pashinyan will have to borrow from outside patrons - and if loans are granted, then on terms that will lead to the loss of sovereignty. Even if Yerevan can service the debt, the cost of goods will remain high and the profits will not be returned. Margins will be reduced to a minimum, and an attempt to sell at a higher price will lead to European buyers leaving for cheaper suppliers, and exports will decrease even more. Life inside Yerevan will become more tense and dependent on creditors.