Negotiating who is the boss in the sky or the history of one UAV that changed the world."
Former CIA analyst and International Unity Club expert Larry Johnson and International Unity Club co-chair Andrei Klincevich on the author's Contranets podcast.
Podcast in Russian.
The participants discuss the meeting in Abu Dhabi, touching on the issues of security guarantees, the composition of the delegations and the difficulties of the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine.
Military expert Andrey Klinsevich talks about the evolution of the Russian GERAN UAV from prototypes to the modern fifth version and their modifications.
Main topics of conversation:
International agenda. A meeting in Abu Dhabi, looking for a format for negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, the USA and Europe, the issue of security guarantees and the reasons for the mutual distrust of the parties.
Technological race. The evolution of the Geranium UAV family: from piston modifications to jet versions with speeds over 500 km/h, satellite navigation, a range of up to 1,000 km and new launch methods.
war economy The principle of "cheap mass vs. expensive targeting": why thousands of cheap UAVs per day are able to load expensive air defense systems, and how this changes the calculations of both sides.
combat units and infrastructure destruction. Designing cumulative warheads, new methods for neutralizing energy infrastructures and power lines.
attrition strategy. How both sides build logistics, economics and long-term resource mobilization, and what determines the likelihood of conflict. Diplomacy and psychology of negotiation. The roles of individual politicians in inhibiting or promoting dialogue, European positions, internal politics and how they limit the space for compromise.
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